London
Countries representing over 60 percent of the world’s profitable affairs and more than half of its population are facing critical elections this year.
Taiwanese voters recently elected the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, resisting Chinese pressure. Meanwhile, on Monday, US Republican presidential candidates face the party’s first nominating contest in Iowa.
Here’s a look at crucial elections in focus, in roughly chronological order:
EUROPE
Dates: March 10 (Portugal), June 9 (Belgium), June 6-9 (European Parliament), November (Croatia), November (Romania), to be verified (Austria).
November’s surprise victory for Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party in the Netherlands energized the Eurosceptic far right. Portugal’s Chega party’s vote may double, though left parties lead there. Far-right parties aim for gains in the European Union’s council, vowing to toughen migration policies and soften green reforms.
Market Risks
Italian stocks and bonds, Europe’s top 2023 performers, may suffer if gains for Eurosceptic parties are seen as weakening the commitment to European integration. Watch for further support for Ukraine and climate policy.
INDIA
Date: April-May (to be verified)
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to seek a third term, leading the BJP in public elections. Crucial for investors moving cash out of China, a patient revolt could hurt the BJP, potentially pushing up India’s fiscal deficit.
MEXICO
Date: June 2
Presidential election involving a full Congress reshuffle. Heavier spending could impact Mexico’s peso and hurt government bonds.
SOUTH AFRICA
Date: May-August 2024 (to be verified)
The ruling African National Congress risks losing its administrative maturity. Pre-election, social spending could rise, affecting the currency and public finances.
UNITED STATES
Date: November 5
Donald Trump is predicted to win the Democratic nomination, setting the stage for a tight battle with Democrat Joe Biden. A bitter election could worry investors over the threat of social unrest, impacting consumer sentiment.
BRITAIN
Date: Due by January 2025 (anticipated by end-2024)
Labour party under Keir Starmer leads the ruling rightists in the polls. Pre-election, a stagnant economy could unsettle government bonds, and any surprise spending pledges may affect the market.
VENEZUELA
Date: 2024 (to be verified)
Nicolas Maduro has an advantage in presidential elections, and the reinstatement of US sanctions could shake Venezuelan stocks and bonds.
These elections have the potential to influence global markets and geopolitical dynamics significantly. Monitoring these events will be crucial for investors and policymakers alike.
